[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 35.2N 32.6W AT 18/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MOVING NNE AT 7
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 33N-36N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N40W TO 5N47W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE IS WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS SEEN
ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 19N64W TO
10N68W TO MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WELL W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
68W-71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
61W-71W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT
17N16W TO 7N23W TO 4N30W TO 8N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 27W-40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 48W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT 30N84W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT OVER THE E GULF
AND FLORIDA N OF 23N BETWEEN 80W-89W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CUBA...AND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE NW GULF AND TEXAS COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER N MEXICO...TEXAS...AND THE NW GULF.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E AND EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND
OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
VENEZUELA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 61W-72W. LIGHT 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
JAMAICA NEAR 18N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 20N68W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W.
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S BAHAMAS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 71W-76W. A
1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 24N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N48W. ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS W
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N21W. A THICK LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST
IS NOTED ON THE METEOSAT-9 SAL PRODUCT OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
10N-30N E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 32N51W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW
AND TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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