[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 33.5N 34.5W AT 17/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SW OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 10
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 33N-36N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 10N40W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE IS WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS SEEN
ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N58W TO
10N62W TO 10N59W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WELL W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
63W-68W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 60W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO
7N20W TO 8N30W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N30W TO 11N36W. A SHORT
ITCZ IS ALSO BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES FROM 9N43W TO 7N50W TO
10N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 15W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA AT
31N92W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 27N91W 22N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N
BETWEEN 84W-89W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN 80W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CUBA...AND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 19N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
E TEXAS NEAR 30N95W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO W OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CUBA...AND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA N OF 19N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND
GUATEMALA. FURTHER S...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA ...AND COSTA RICA FROM
4N-11N BETWEEN 68W-85W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N76W INFLUENCING THE CONVECTION OVER
HISPANIOLA JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS
FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 71W-79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N55W TO 24N60W MOVING E. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N24W. A THICK LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST
IS NOTED ON THE METEOSAT-9 SAL PRODUCT OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
15N-30N E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N48W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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