[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE AT 15/2100 UTC IS NEAR 30.8N
48.2W...OR ABOUT 980 MI E OF BERMUDA OR ABOUT 1305 MI WSW OF THE
AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING EAST AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 NM. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF
THE CENTER FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54/55W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-56W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
50W-58W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 24W-27W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 22W-28W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT
18N16W TO 7N26W TO 7N30W TO 8N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N37W
TO 12N50W TO 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM
HOUSTON TEXAS TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S FROM
26N94W TO 22N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 90W-96W...AND FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 95W-98W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WEST
CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
28N88W ASSISTING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE N GULF.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND THE W CARIBBEAN
FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 81W-87W. FURTHER S... SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
76W-86W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N84W ASSISTING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N68W
INFLUENCING THE CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO AND AND HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO INTRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 64W. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N66W MOVING E.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N64W TO THE LOW CENTER TO
24N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A
WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 23N63W. ANOTHER
1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N38W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N67W SUPPORTING
THE W ATLANTIC LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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