[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE AT 15/1500 UTC IS NEAR
30.9N 49.9W. NADINE IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 13 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 39 NM/75 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 161 NM/295 KM. PLEASE
READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN
48W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN
38W AND 51W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 51W AND 55W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N
TO 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N.
RAWINSONDE DATA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOW THAT A WAVE
EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA DURING THE TIME BETWEEN 13/0000 UTC
AND 14/0000 UTC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR
19N16W TO 14N21W 11N24W AND 8N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N34W TO 7N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N16W 8N26W 5N37W 5N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N89W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE
COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER
ALONG 97W FROM 25N TO 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W/98W...TO THE SOUTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 86W INCLUDING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 27N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG
27N59W 24N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 14N69W...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 70W. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 75W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE 12N60W 14N64W 15N67W 15N70W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
TO THE NORTHEAST OF 15N60W 17N64W 20N69W.

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. THE
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
COAST OF NICARAGUA. IT ALSO IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST
OF 70W. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMAINING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA INTO HONDURAS. CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS HONDURAS
FROM EAST-TO-WEST.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N...FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W AND ALONG
THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 70W...THROUGH
32N TO 27N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N66W TO A 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N68W...TO 25N70W. THIS
TROUGH IS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM AN ALREADY-DISSIPATED
COLD FRONT FROM THREE TO FOUR DAYS AGO. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 62W
AND 69W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 15/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA IS 2.05 INCHES.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG
27N59W 24N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N69W...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 37N34W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW WIND FROM
HURRICANE NADINE MERGES WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 37N34W CYCLONIC CENTER IN BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE 32N15W 16N39W TROUGH
AND 40W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N15W...THE WESTERN PART OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 23N22W...
CURVING TO 21N34W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 19N36W TO 16N39W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N14W NEAR THE EASTERN CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 23N26W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 24N40W...TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 23N58W...TO 24N64W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT HURRICANE NADINE...AND 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS WITH A 52W TROPICAL WAVE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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