[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 28.8N 53.4W 14/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1645
MI...2645 KM WSW OF THE AZORES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 48W-56W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 14N48W TO 7N45W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS
EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE VALUES ON TPW IMAGERY.
SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W ALONG 9N23W TO 9N30W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES TO 10N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM O NEITHER SIDE OF BOTH THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN...NW...AND SW BASINS CONTINUE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE FEATURES FOR EACH AREA. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL COAST OF
TEXAS EXTENDING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT RUNS PARALLEL
ALONG THE SRN COAST OF TEXAS TO INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVIDENT
ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY N OF 25N W OF 94W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
COVERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND COASTAL WATERS OF TAMPICO S OF
24N W OF 93W. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WRN
ATLANTIC TO ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 27N87W...GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GREAT PORTION OF THE
ERN GULF E OF 87W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SPINNING NEAR THE GULF CENTER. THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING ALL THREE AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST A FEW NM N OF CUBA COASTAL WATERS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND W OF 77W...SOME OF THESE
REACHING THE WATERS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REMAINDER OF
THE NW AND CENTRAL BASIN ARE DOMINATED BY DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION AND ONLY ALLOWING
FOR A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOP SHOWERS DOTTING THE DISCUSSION AREA
TONIGHT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED S OF 14N W
OF 77W...ASSOCIATED TO THE ERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH LOCALLY FRESH TRADES IN
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ASIDE THE SW BASIN...FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS
THE WRN ATLANTIC NEAR 35N70W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 31N67W 27N70W TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W AND INTO
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 170 NM N OF
THE AXIS W OF 73W. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 80 NM
ON EITHER SIDE E OF 70W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SPLIT OVERNIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON NADINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N44W. THE
OVERALL FAIR WEATHER IS ENHANCED ALOFT BY THICK LAYER OF SAHARAN
DUST NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 SAL PRODUCT E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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