[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 14/1500 UTC IS NEAR
28.0N 53.5W. NADINE IS MOVING NORTHWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. SOME STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
NADINE MAY BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 NM/370 KM FROM THE CENTER.
PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS OF 29N54W...THAT MEANS
WITHIN 80 TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT FROM THE
CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN
EARLIER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG HAVE WARMED AND ONLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
REMNANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR
19N16W TO 12N20W AND 7N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N30W
TO 6N33W 8N38W AND 9N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 600 NM TO THE NORTH
OF THE LINE 6N13W 3N24W...THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...6N45W...AND
FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
180 NM TO THE NORTH OF 8N19W 4N30W 9N39W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 7N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS TROUGH IS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N99W ALONG THE TEXAS/
MEXICO BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BEYOND
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
29N94W TO 25N90W AND 21N90W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC FOR MONTERREY MEXICO IS 1.45 INCHES.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 88W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 73W
AND 80W. THIS PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE SURFACE TROUGH...
THAT PASSES THROUGH 27N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N76W
IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N64W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 69W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST
OF 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 75W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/1200 UTC FOR SAINT THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
IS 0.51 INCHES...AND 0.18 INCHES FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO VENEZUELA COAST TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 8N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 8N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 81W
AND 84W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W STARTING AT 36 HOURS
INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 35N70W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 28N69W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 62W AND
70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N68W 27N70W...TO 24N76W IN
THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 30N67W 26N69W 25N74W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA IS 0.36 INCHES.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 25N64W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 69W. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 75W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 75W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC FOR
SAINT THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS 0.51 INCHES...
AND 0.18 INCHES FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 35N28W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 43W. THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N25W TO 30N26W AND 27N30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 19W AND 40W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NADINE. ALSO EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 40W
STARTING AT 18 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AT 48 HOURS INTO
THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 38W WITH
THAT FEATURE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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