[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.3N 54.1W 14/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 695 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 665
NM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING NNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 52W-56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 45W-57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
14N45W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 9N43W TO 7N42W MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 19N16W CONTINUING ALONG 11N18W TO 9N26W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS CONTINUING TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N41. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 19W-23W AND WITHIN 225 NM S
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N47W TO 7N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH
S THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE N GULF NEAR 27N89W TO THE
S/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N89W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO
TO OVER THE W GULF WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS
OVER THE E GULF. THIS IS GIVING MOST OF THE GULF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THIS MORNING. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 83W-89W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 94W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 91W-94W. A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLC NEAR
23N80W ALONG 24N82W TO 24N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 84W TO OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SUN. A SURFACE TROUGH...AND POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF SUN NIGHT AND WILL LIFT N
OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE N CARIBBEAN
WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW WATERS. A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N ACROSS W CUBA
BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG
10N/11N ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN
75W-83W. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TO THE ABC ISLANDS COVERING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING REMAINS TROPICAL STORM NADINE
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER KENTUCKY. A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N64W
ALONG 29N68W THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH N OF 29N AND S OF 25N W
OF 76W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 29N63W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM
OF LINE FROM 28N61W TO 31N59W. BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE
NE ATLC COVERING THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 15W-35W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N25W TO 27N31W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND BECOMING DIFFUSE BY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL STORM NADINE
WILL MOVE N THROUGH SAT THEN TURN TOWARD THE NE OUT OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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