[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 13/1500 UTC IS NEAR
22.6N 52.2W. NADINE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. SOME STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
NADINE MAY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 122 NM/225 KM FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE
READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
22N TO 25N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W THAT IS OCCURRING IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS OCCURRING AROUND TROPICAL
STORM NADINE AND A 30N60W 20N64W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W TO THE SOUTH OF
14N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 44W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W...TO 9N21W TO 8N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N40W
TO 5N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
6N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W...AND WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N13W AT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
ARE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ALSO IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 93W AND 98W FROM THE TEXAS TO ITS GULF COASTAL WATERS.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 84W...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ALONG
24N INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N83W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF
24N79W ABOUT 50 NM TO THE WEST OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS PARTS OF WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC FOR FREEPORT
IN THE BAHAMAS WAS 0.28 INCHES.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER MEXICO AND
THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 94W
AND 100W. THESE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY A MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN MEXICO NEAR 23N99W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. EARLIER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF
85W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 25N62W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
20N64W...TOWARD THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 12N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 75W...TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 68W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS COLOMBIA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 13/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE 0.45 INCHES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N62W TO 25N62W...TO A 20N64W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 12N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N58W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N67W.
THE FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N67W TO 25N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N75W...AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N83W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N66W
24N72W 24N78W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 37N29W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 10W AND 44W. THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N21W TO 28N28W TO 31N34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N
TO THE EAST OF 42W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND TO 24N21W. A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N44W TO 23N34W AND 18N27W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NADINE. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 63W
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR SO. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF 31N AT 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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