[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 50.6W 13/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 695 NM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING NW AT 14 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
14N38W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 8N34W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 33W-41W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W CONTINUING ALONG 9N21W TO THE 1011 MB
LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 19W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
27N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
SW MEXICO TO OVER THE SW GULF ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-27N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E
OF 88W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE N CARIBBEAN
WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW WATERS. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG E COAST OF FLORIDA INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N TO OVER W CUBA AND
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 82W-87W. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG 10N ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
11N BETWEEN 75W-82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-14N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N
BETWEEN 61-69W INCLUDING BONAIRE AND CURACAO ISLANDS. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN TRADE THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM NADINE IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE W ATLC W
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DESCRIBED BELOW AND ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N64W
CONTINUING S ALONG 25N67W THEN W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
24N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 27N79S INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N W OF 78W TO
OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 20N64W
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND NNE TO NEAR
28N59W PRECEDING TROPICAL STORM NADINE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 52W-58W.
BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE ATLC COVERING THE AREA N
OF 23N BETWEEN 15W-40W SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 32N23W TO 26N30W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AND FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 31W-35W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM NADINE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY
BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MAINTAINING A NW TRACK AND IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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