[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 112035
TCDAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

MICHAEL CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS BEEN DEVOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MICHAEL IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG SHEAR...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. MICHAEL IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025 DEGREES AT 27 KNOTS.  MICHAEL IS BEING
STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE
EAST AND A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED
BY A FRONT.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON MICHAEL ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 41.4N  45.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  12/0600Z 45.0N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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