[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 112034
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF TD
FOURTEEN...AND CLOUDINESS HAS INCREASED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM THIS MORNING...AND DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS REMAIN T2.5 FROM
TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB.  SINCE THERE IS NOT YET CONSENSUS FROM BOTH
AGENCIES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER MAY BE AN INDICATION
THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE STRENGTHENING SOON.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD
HAVE GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO DUE TO LIGHT
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN THAT TIME SPAN.  THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC BY DAY 4.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE WILL BE AFFECTED BY
20-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  IN FACT...THE LGEM MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING OF ALL THE INTENSITY MODELS AND BARELY
BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 50 KT.  THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO SHOW SOME WEAKENING ON DAY 5 DUE TO THE
EXPECTED SHEAR.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...AND IT NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 305/10 KT.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING...WITH THE
DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS.  THE ONE NOTEWORTHY POINT IS THAT THE
NEW ECMWF RUN CONTINUES TO DIVERGE FROM THE OTHER TRACK MODELS...
THIS TIME SHOWING A STRONGER EASTWARD MOTION AND A SHARPER
RECURVATURE.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 17.5N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 18.5N  45.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 19.9N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 21.4N  50.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 23.2N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 27.0N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 30.0N  52.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 31.5N  49.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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