[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 33.6N 46.3W AT 10/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 973 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN
45W-47W.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 38.5N 59.8N AT 10/1800
UTC OR ABOUT 565 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING
NNE AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. LESLIE IS MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA HOWEVER LONG PERIOD
SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. CANADA HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N AND E OF
THE CENTER FROM 38N-41N BETWEEN 58W-62W...AND FROM 34N-39N
BETWEEN 56W-58W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM
24N37W TO A 1008 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
15N37W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 37W-42W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOTED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT
19N16W TO THE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N24W TO 14N30W TO A
1008 MB LOW AT 15N37W TO 12N40W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N50W TO 8N55W TO 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 15W-22W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N
BETWEEN 37W-42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 35W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE
FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W TO
TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FURTHER S OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 93W-96W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING
THE SURFACE FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N86W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE BACK N TO S TEXAS
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR
23N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 60W-65W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE.
AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 64W-70W MOVING W. A 1009 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA AT 9N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW COLOMBIA...THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 76W-84W.
FURTHER N...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 85W-88W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N86W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH A LOT OF
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG
31N71W 28N74W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. HURRICANE
MICHAEL AND T.S. LESLIE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 32N.
SEE ABOVE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
31N31W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF AFRICAN
DUST AND DRY AIR ARE OVER OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 13N-27N E OF
35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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