[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 33.6N 44.4W AT 10/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 887 NM WSW OF THE AZORES MOVING W AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 34.4N 61.8N AT 10/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 195 NM NE OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA. CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED FROM
THE CENTER OF LESLIE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 32N60W 35N59W TO 37N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 31N-38W BETWEEN 58W-67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM
23N32W ALONG 18N34W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 15N34W MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. LOW IS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 34W-38W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WNW AT 13 TO 17 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOTED.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 19N16W CONTINUING ALONG 13N26W THROUGH THE 1008 MB LOW
ALONG 9N42W TO 9N50W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 11N58W TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE EXTENDING FROM 18N44W TO 13N38W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 30W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN
16W-19W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 56W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE US E OF 100W DIPPING S OVER THE N
GULF OF MEXICO TO 28N AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT
10/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF JUST N OF TAMPA CONTINUING W TO 28N85W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS N TO NEAR KEY WEST
FLORIDA AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 10/0300 UTC
EXTENDS FROM 23N87W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE SW
GULF S OF 22N W OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SAG SE
FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO 27N87W BY MON MORNING WHERE IT TOO
WILL BECOME STATIONARY BY TUE AND WED DISSIPATING BY THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N AND NE THROUGH FRI.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 20N87W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH
S OF 18N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA S OF 10N. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE MICHAEL AND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ARE N OF 32N. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE US W OF
75W DIPPING S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 28N AND SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT AT 10/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 21N61W ALONG 25N55W 29N54W TO 33N55W
TRAILING INTO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE E ATLC AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N25W ALONG 26N42W TO A
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 22N67W. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES SAHARAN
DUST COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N-28N E OF 30W AND A
SWATH WRAPPING AROUND TO THE W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 32N67W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MON NIGHT
FROM 32N59W TO 28N54W THEN STATIONARY TO THE N BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT
BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N
THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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