[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 33.7N  43.2W AT 09/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MOVING W AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-35N BETWEEN 41W-44W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 32.6N 62.4W AT 09/1800
UTC OR ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM E OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 61W-65W. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 23N27W TO
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 13N28W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
SYSTEM COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AROUND THE OCEANIC MONSOONAL
GYRE DESCRIBED BELOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 26W-35W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOTED.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 15N17W
TO THE 1008 MB LOW AT 13N28W TO 10N40W TO 10N51W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 10N51W TO 10N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 14W-35W...FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN
26W-35W...AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 35W-48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALSO N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 19N40W TO 13N36W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W
TO N MEXICO AT 25N97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE N GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN
80W-97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER S OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 95W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N85W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 67W-71W
MOVING W. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA AT 8N75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF
PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 78W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND BELIZE FROM 12N-18N W OF 82W. THIS CONVECTION IS
BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N85W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH A LOT
OF UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO
ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA NEAR 31N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
31N-32N BETWEEN 77W-80W. HURRICANE MICHAEL AND T.S. LESLIE ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 32N. SEE ABOVE. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR ARE OVER OVER
THE E ATLANTIC FROM 13N-20N E OF 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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