[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LESLIE AT 07/1200 UTC IS
NEAR 26.7N 62.0W. LESLIE IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 NM FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS
THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
BERMUDA...THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 61W AND
62W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 27N
BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

THE CENTER OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MICHAEL AT 07/0900 UTC IS
NEAR 31.0N 40.8W. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHWARD 3 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON MICHAEL THAT ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON MICHAEL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 22 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 30N TO 32N
BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. MICHAEL FINDS ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF A
TRIANGLE OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERS. ONE SUCH CENTER IS NEAR 35N34W...A SECOND ONE IS NEAR
28N32W...AND A THIRD CENTER IS NEAR 25N46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W...TO THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N25W...TO
12N40W AND 9N48W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N48W TO 9N60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 17W AND 21W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO
19N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 34N72W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 30N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...THROUGH
24N79W IN BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...ANDROS ISLAND...AND
CUBA...TO 17N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS COVERING CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO EL SALVADOR...AND IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ONLY
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS
OF MEXICO ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE BETWEEN 99W AND
103W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE ALONG THE COAST FROM
CENTRAL AMERICA TO MEXICO IS NORTHEASTERLY. A SEPARATE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES IN MEXICO NEAR
26N101W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE 34N72W-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 28N89W...ABOUT 63 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP
OF LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS AWAY FROM THE CENTER...FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN
88W AND 91W. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY
WEAK AND FLAT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AREA.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ON TOP OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE EAST OF THE 34N72W-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 34N72W-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS
TROUGH. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS
LARGELY EASTERLY...MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N45W
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEFORE CURVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH PANAMA
NEAR 8N81W...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 79W AND
84W...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO 12N83W...AND THE PANAMA COAST
ALONG 78W.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
TO THE WEST OF 68W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE MICHAEL FINDS ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRIANGLE OF
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS. ONE
SUCH CENTER IS NEAR 35N34W...A SECOND ONE IS NEAR 28N32W... AND
A THIRD CENTER IS NEAR 25N46W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 28N32W
CENTER TO 25N36W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 25N46W CENTER TO
21N45W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE AREA OF
HURRICANE LESLIE REACHING 37N56W. THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LESLIE RIDGE DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE INDIVIDUAL WIND FLOW REGIMES
THAT ARE MOVING AROUND THE 28N32W CENTER AND THE 25N46W CENTER.
THE WIND FLOW THAT IS NOT CAUGHT UP IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW OF THE CYCLONIC CENTERS BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 45W. THIS WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY REACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ON TOP OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W
TO 28N29W AND 17N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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