[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LESLIE AT 07/0300 UTC IS
NEAR 26.5N 62.2W. LESLIE IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 139 NM FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS
THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
BERMUDA...THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND
62W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 74W.

THE EYE OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MICHAEL AT 07/0300 UTC IS
NEAR 30.8N 40.8W. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 4 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 100 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 22 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN
40W AND 42W. MICHAEL FINDS ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRIANGLE
OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS.
ONE SUCH CENTER IS NEAR 36N36W...A SECOND ONE IS NEAR
28N35W...AND A THIRD CENTER IS NEAR 27N46W.

A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 28.5N 88.5W...ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS AWAY FROM THE CENTER...WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N91W.
SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EVEN THOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE FAVORABLE. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE MAP ANALYSIS AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GAMBIA NEAR 14N17W...
TO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N25W...
TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N27W...TO 12N40W
AND 9N50W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N50W...TO 11N56W AND 10N60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 15W AND 17W AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 26W AND
30W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 19W AND 21W AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
5N TO 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 34N72W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 30N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...THROUGH 24N79W
IN BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...ANDROS ISLAND...AND CUBA...
TO 17N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...
SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR...AND IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE ALONG
THE COAST FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO MEXICO IS NORTHEASTERLY.
A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES
IN MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 74W AND
79W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST STATES SIX HOURS AGO...HAS BECOME
INDISTINCT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. PART
OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RESPONDING TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
28N78W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD AS A RESULT OF THE
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N65W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 30N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO NEAR 20N89W. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N94W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IN 18 HOURS THAT
IS NEAR 28N89W...CHANGING LITTLE AT 24 HOURS...AND AS A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
29N88W...AT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE EAST OF THE 34N72W-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 34N72W-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS
TROUGH. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS
LARGELY EASTERLY...MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N45W
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEFORE CURVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
PANAMA NEAR 9N80W...BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 8N
BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO 11N81W AND
10N80W...AND ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST FROM WESTERN
PANAMA TO NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE MICHAEL FINDS ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRIANGLE OF
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS. ONE
SUCH CENTER IS NEAR 36N36W...A SECOND ONE IS NEAR 28N35W...
AND A THIRD CENTER IS NEAR 27N46W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
28N35W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 22N39W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
27N46W CENTER TO 22N44W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE AREA OF HURRICANE LESLIE REACHING 35N57W.
THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE LESLIE RIDGE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL WIND FLOW REGIMES THAT ARE MOVING AROUND THE 28N35W
CENTER AND THE 27N46W CENTER. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS NOT CAUGHT
UP IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF THE CYCLONIC CENTERS
BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 45W. THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N65W...
THROUGH 30N73W...TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W...TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR 20N89W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 24N36W AND 14N49W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE LESLIE AND HURRICANE MICHAEL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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