[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.6N 41.0W AT 06/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 821 NM WSW OF THE AZORES MOVING NNE AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 39W-43W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

HURRICANE LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N 62.2W AT 07/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 374 NM SSE OF BERMUDA...AND IS STATIONARY. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. THE WEATHER SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 59W-64W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 22N-29N
BETWEEN 56W-59W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 28N88W. SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
NEAR 25N91W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 90W-92W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
17N23W TO A 1011 MB MONSOONAL LOW NEAR 17N28W TO 09N50W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N50W TO
11N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
15W-21W...FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 25W-33W...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS THE
MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER
EAST... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA S OF 28N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER W CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER S TEXAS AND
THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER
THE GULF PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 29N74W HELPING TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. EXPECT... ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA... THE SW CARIBBEAN
...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR
...AND S GUATEMALA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 70W-86W...AND FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 80W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 29N74W HELPING TO
PRODUCE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W.
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE LESLIE AND HURRICANE MICHAEL ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE N BAHAMAS
FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 25N76W. A 1012 MB LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 20N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
LOW. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E AT 21N46W. DRY SAHARAN
DUST IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY N OF 20N E OF 38W. EXPECT...
CONTINUED SHOWERS N OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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