[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.1N 41.3W AT 06/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 850 NM WSW OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 06 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 39W-44W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

HURRICANE LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.4N 62.4W AT 06/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 380 NM SSE OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 02 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65
KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
24N-30N BETWEEN 55W-64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
22N-24N BETWEEN 59W-66W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 29N88W. SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER
INLAND NEAR MOBILE BAY TO NEAR 32N87W AND SW FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO NEAR 27N92W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A
COMPLEX OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW CENTER OCCURRING FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 87W-92W. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
A 1013 MB MONSOONAL LOW NEAR 17N28W TO 09N50W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N50W TO 10N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 16W-21W...FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 25W-31W...AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 28W-38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 11W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS NEAR 32N97W
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS NEAR
28N76W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF IS THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THAT IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE NE
GULF THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND THROUGH NORTH
FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC INTO THE SE GULF...THEN
WESTWARD ALONG 24N TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. OUTSIDE
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...FAIR
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 28N76W
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 78W. MOSTLY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THIS TROUGHING AS GENERALLY E TO SE WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED W OF 80W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 82W-85W DUE MAINLY TO
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN E OF 80W IS UNDER MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND GENERALLY 10 TO
15 KT TRADEWINDS. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONDITIONS REMAINS TRANQUIL. THE E TO SE TRADEWINDS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS
NEAR 28N76W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD
TO 22N80W OVER CENTRAL CUBA TO A BASE LOCATED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
NORTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N65W TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
29N74W...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN
77W-80W...INCLUDING THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...
THE RATHER LARGE REACHING EXTENT OF HURRICANE LESLIE REMAINS N
OF 21N BETWEEN 54W-68W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LESLIE...A WEAK 1015
MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N54W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PIERCING
FROM THE CENTER NE TO 22N52W AND FROM THE CENTER TO THE SSW TO
18N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
52W-55W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N44W TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WEAK LOW NEAR 17N54W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W.
THE WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BECOME
ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION IS LESLIE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FINALLY...AS HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADS FOR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 38W-42W...THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
47N22W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SSW FROM THE HIGH CENTER ACROSS
THE AZORES NEAR 38N28W TO AN AREA SE OF MICHAEL NEAR 26N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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