[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LESLIE AT 06/0300 UTC IS
NEAR 26.2N 62.5W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 384 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTHWARD 2 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 22 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 169 NM FROM THE CENTER.
SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT BERMUDA...THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 27N
BETWEEN 61W AND 63W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN
50W AND 75W.

THE CENTER OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MICHAEL AT 06/0500 UTC
IS NEAR 29.4N 42.0W. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 6 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 13 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W
AND 43W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N45W TO 30N48W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W 31N50W 32N58W 33N62W.

A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ABOUT 55 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL BORDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON IF IT IS
NECESSARY. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 28.5N89W...ABOUT 35 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO TROPICAL WAVE IS EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
16N17W TO 18N22W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
15N30W...TO 13N40W AND 11N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N46W...
TO 12N54W AND 12N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W AND FROM 16N
TO 18N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 16N TO THE EAST OF 40W...FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN BETWEEN
40W AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N74W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 28N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST...THROUGH 22N79W IN
CUBA...TO 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 16N85W NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. A SEPARATE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES IN MEXICO NEAR
23N103W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N
TO 29N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN
74W AND 81W FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST STATES...FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO
GEORGIA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND THEN DISSIPATING JUST BEFORE ENTERING THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOT SUPPORTED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. PART OF THE
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
IS RESPONDING TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N78W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN PUSHING
SOUTHWARD AS A RESULT OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THROUGH 28N78W...28N81W IN FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...TO 25N95W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR 29N88W...MOVES TO 1007 MB
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 28N88W IN 24 HOURS...AND MOVES
TO 1006 MB TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 28N89W IN 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF THE 33N74W 16N85W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 33N74W 16N85W TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...10N80W JUST TO
THE NORTH OF PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N83W 14N77W
13N74W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

.PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N22W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 29N22W CYCLONIC CENTER AND
TO 26N21W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 26N21W TO 27N34W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N34W TO A 27N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 20N40W 17N42W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS WITHIN 280 TO 400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 27N34W 17N42W PART
OF THE TROUGH.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W
THROUGH 28N78W...28N81W IN FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...TO 25N95W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N33W
TO 25N36W AND 14N52W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE LESLIE AND HURRICANE MICHAEL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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