[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.9N 62.7W AT 05/2100 UTC.
THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF BERMUDA. LESLIE IS
MOVING N AT 2 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT GUSTING TO 80
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2 /WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALSO SEE LATEST PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT2. LESLIE IS A RELATIVELY LARGE TROPICAL HURRICANE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN
55W-67W.

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 28.8N 42.7W AT 05/2100
UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 1105 MI...1775 KM WSW OF THE AZORES.
MICHAEL IS MOVING NE AT 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT
GUSTING TO 75 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. MICHAEL IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL STORM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-34N BETWEEN 39W-44W.

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
30N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 28N91W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW
AND TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT WSW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AFFECTING THE N-CENTRAL
WATERS OF THE GULF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 16N16W
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 17N23W TO AN EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW
AT 16N27W TO 12N40W TO 11N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN
10W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 26W-38W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N
BETWEEN 38W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER SOUTH... SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA S OF 28N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W
CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER S TEXAS AND THE W GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE NW GULF. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W HELPING TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. EXPECT... ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA... THE SW CARIBBEAN
...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR
...AND S GUATEMALA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 70W-86W...AND FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 80W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W HELPING TO
PRODUCE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N70W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE LESLIE AND T.S. MICHAEL ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 76W-79W. DRY SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY
N OF 20N E OF 40W. EXPECT...NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER
THE N BAHAMAS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA





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