[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS ABOUT TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS...
CENTERED NEAR 25.8N 62.5W AT 05/1745 UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA. LESLIE IS MOVING N AT 2 KT
WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 65 KT GUSTING TO 80 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN
56W-64W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2 /WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING STRONGER...
LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 42.9W AT 05/1730Z...ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM
WSW OF THE AZORES. MICHAEL IS MOVING NE AT 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 55 KT GUSTING TO 65 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MICHAEL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.
MICHAEL IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING S ACROSS THE NE GULF ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR THE CITY OF CRESTVIEW.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WSW INTO THE GULF FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO NEAR 29N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEPICTED
ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI AND ERN LOUISIANA N OF
27N BETWEEN 85W-91W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT WSW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AFFECTING THE
N-CENTRAL WATERS OF THE GULF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNATURE EVIDENCE AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AND DATA OBSERVATIONS
NEAR THIS SYSTEM...THIS WAVE WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE
ANALYSIS MAP.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W CONTINUING WSW ALONG 14N30W 10N40W TO
11N48W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO NEAR 13N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150-170 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 24W-48W. AN EARLIER
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING W OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS LOW MAY BE
CONSISTENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HENCE IT WILL LIKELY BE
ADDED TO THE NEXT SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 05/1200
UTC WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...
DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF
BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED A FEW NM NE OF HISPANIOLA.
THE ONLY AREA WHERE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IS
FOUND OVER THE FAR SW BASIN...S OF 14N W OF 75W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS
REGION...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH THE ERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
ANALYZED ACROSS NRN COSTA RICA TO TO NRN COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE FAR ENE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM
LESLIE...GENERATING A SOUTHERLY TO S-EASTERLY COMPONENT E OF 65W
N OF 14N. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 65W. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW BASIN CONTINUING
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW WOBBLING IN
THE WRN ATLC OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AROUND 27N78W. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LIFTING GENERATED BY THE UPPER
LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 76W AND THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NNE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT TO THIS AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION
...A 1017 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED CENTERED NEAR 27N75W PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN ATLC W OF 65W. TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE IS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLC NEAR 25.7N 62.8W
TRACKING NORTHWARD. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE NEXT SYSTEM CENTERED FARTHER EAST IS TROPICAL STORM
MICHAEL...ALSO DESCRIBED IN THE SAME SECTION ABOVE. THIS LEAVES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS...
PROVIDED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR 20N22W..COMBINED WITH DRY SAHARAN DUST ALOFT NOTED ON
METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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