[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR
25.4N 62.9W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 425 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 2 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 NM FROM
THE CENTER. SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. HIGH CLOUDS FROM LESLIE ARE SWEEPING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 60W TO 75W NEAR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR
28.1N 43.9W. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHWARD 4 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. MICHAEL IS A SMALL TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 NM
FROM THE CENTER. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE AREA THAT IS NEAR THE CENTER OF MICHAEL TO 23N45W TO
17N48W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N
TO 29N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. THE MAJOR PART OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA OF THIS BULLETIN...TO THE NORTH OF 32N. THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE TROUGH REACHES 29N BETWEEN 44W AND 70W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 31N49W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N49W TO 31N57W AND 31N61W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 31N61W BEYOND BERMUDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N62W 29N50W BEYOND 32N44W...AND FROM 31N TO 35N
BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
35W AND 50W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A POORLY-DEFINED ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W
FROM 11N TO 19N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 13 KNOTS
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR
20N16W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N30W
10N40W AND 9N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N46W...CURVING TO
8N51W 10N53W AND 10N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 14N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND
38W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N75W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...TO 22N80W IN CUBA...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
20N84W...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH
OF 20N...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE MEXICO GULF
COAST ALONG 23N...TO A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN
MEXICO NEAR 20N101W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 32N TO THE WEST OF 75W...NEAR THE BAHAMAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 77W AND
80W...TO INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND
THEN INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS
FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER FROM 29N NORTHWARD TO
A 1010 MB CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SOME COMPUTER
MODELS PUSH THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N87W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE 1016 MB HIGH CENTER.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN 48 HOURS NEAR 28N89W...WITHIN 120 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER...WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA IS RELATED TO THE
LARGER-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM
LESLIE. THE REST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF JAMAICA IS RELATED TO A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9.5N73W ALONG THE
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 9N IN THE GULF OF URABA
TO 15N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W NEAR NICARAGUA.

.PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND
75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N75W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W TO 21N36W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...
AND TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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