[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 05/0300 UTC IS NEAR
25.2N 62.8W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 433 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 2 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 NM FROM
THE CENTER. SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 25.5N62W...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W. HIGH CLOUDS FROM LESLIE ARE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 60W TO 73W NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL AT 05/0300 UTC IS NEAR
27.4N 43.7W. MICHAEL IS STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN THAT ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. MICHAEL IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 NM FROM
THE CENTER. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE AREA THAT IS NEAR THE CENTER OF MICHAEL TO 23N45W TO 17N48W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. THE MAJOR PART OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
OF THIS BULLETIN...TO THE NORTH OF 32N. THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE TROUGH REACHES 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 63. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N50W TO 31N57W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N57W BEYOND BERMUDA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN
49W AND 63W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A POORLY-DEFINED ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N41W
15N42W 11N42W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 13 KNOTS DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N30W...TO 10N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N44W TO 12N54W AND 11N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 16N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W...ONE CELL
OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS
OF 13N19.5W AND A SECOND ONE IS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
16N25W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 18N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N74W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...TO 22N80W IN CUBA...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
20N84W...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF
20N...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE SOUTH OF 23N. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE MEXICO GULF
COAST ALONG 23N...TO A WEAK 20N104W MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N
TO 27N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...WEAKENING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO THE NORTH OF 19N...TO INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
100W AND 105W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA INTO ALABAMA...
AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W.
A CELL OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE
COAST OF MISSISSIPPI WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS NEAR 29.5N 88.5W.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE 1016 MB HIGH CENTER.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA IS RELATED TO THE
LARGER-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM
LESLIE. THE REST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF JAMAICA IS RELATED TO A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND WEST CENTRAL COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N
BETWEEN 73W AT THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER AND 79W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 26N35W AND 23N37W.
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N53W TO 15N53W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...AND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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