[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050235
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.3N 62.6W AT 04/2100
UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSE OF BERMUDA.
LESLIE IS MOVING N AT 3 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT
GUSTING TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2 /WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALSO
SEE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM LESLIE UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. LESLIE IS A
RELATIVELY LARGE TROPICAL STORM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 61W-63W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE MOSTLY E OF
THE CENTER FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 56W-63W.

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 27.5N 43.7W AT 04/2100
UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE AZORES.
MICHAEL IS MOVING NNW AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT
GUSTING TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. MICHAEL IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL STORM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 42W-44W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N40W TO 12N41W MOVING W AT 10KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 15N16W
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 16N24W TO AN EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW
AT 14N28W TO 10N40W TO 10N46W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM
10N46W TO 12N55W TO TRINIDAD AT 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
15W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 28W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 36W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE HIGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST N OF THE HIGH OVER THE NE
GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-90W. FURTHER
SOUTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER S
FLORIDA S OF 27N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 19N BETWEEN 94W-96W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER MOST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS HOWEVER CENTERED OVER THE
N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W HELPING TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA. EXPECT... ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SHOWERS FROM T.S. LESLIE ARE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...
S HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
73W-87W...AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 79W-92W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR
26N78W HELPING TO PRODUCE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CUBA. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W
HELPING TO PRODUCE SHEAR OVER T.S. LESLIE. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. LESLIE AND T.S. MICHAEL ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 76W-80W. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 30N-32N
BETWEEN 50W-63W. DRY SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY
N OF 20N E OF 40W. EXPECT...NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER
THE N BAHAMAS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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