[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 04/0900 UTC IS NEAR
24.7N 62.5W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 429 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO...AND 472 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
LESLIE IS MOVING NORTHWARD 4 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 178 NM FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS GENERATED
BY LESLIE MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. SWELLS
ALSO WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 71W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN AT 04/0900 UTC
IS NEAR 26.5N 43.3W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
5 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 22N40W AND 17N43W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 25N TO 34N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W. THE MAJOR PART OF
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
OF THIS BULLETIN...TO THE NORTH OF 32N. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
TROUGH REACHES 31N BETWEEN 50W AND BERMUDA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 56W AND BERMUDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A POORLY-DEFINED ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N36W
16N37W 12N38W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD SINCE THE
03/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W AND FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL SENEGAL
NEAR 16N16W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N30W 10N45W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N45W TO 9N52W. THE ITCZ IS INDISTINCT
AFTER 9N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...AND
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N76W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...TO 22N80W IN CUBA...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO AN ILL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N98W IN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...
FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE SOUTH OF 20N.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA NEAR
31N82W...TO 26N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND 25N97W IN
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N89W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED IN COMPARATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 26N84W. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. THE REST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...8N81W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND EXTREME SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 45 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 9N77W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST
TO 11N79W AND 13N80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
4N TO 8N BETWEEN COASTAL COLOMBIA AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N33W TO 28N33W TO 24N34W.
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 33N75W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 18N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...AND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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