[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR
24.0N 63.1W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 380 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO. LESLIE IS STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 178 NM FROM
THE CENTER. SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO. SWELLS ALSO WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE
U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY...MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN 46W AND 70W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN AT 04/0300 UTC
IS NEAR 25.9N 42.8W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
4 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 22N40W AND 17N43W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 33N39W...FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 40W
AND 43W...AND FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 49W. THE MAJOR
PART OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN...TO THE NORTH OF 32N. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE TROUGH REACHES 32N BETWEEN 53W AND BERMUDA. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 33N/34N BETWEEN
56W AND 67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A POORLY-DEFINED ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N35W
16N36W 13N37W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD SINCE THE
03/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER OF MAURITANIA AND
SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N30W
11N38W AND 11N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N45W TOWARD
TRINIDAD NEAR 10N/11N ALONG 61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 30W...AND FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N76W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...TO 22N80W IN CUBA...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO AN ILL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N97W IN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...
FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W. EARLIER PRECIPITATION
THAT COVERED THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN
GUATEMALA AND 100W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED DURING THE LAST
SIX HOURS.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA NEAR
30N82W...TO 26N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND 25N98W IN
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N87W TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. THE REST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
5N TO 8N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...STRONG IN TWO CELLS IN COLOMBIA
FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 24N35W. A 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N51W...ABOUT 525 NM TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN. A SECOND SURFACE
EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N72W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N77W...TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...AND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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