[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.0N 63.1W AT 03/2100
UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...OR ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA. LESLIE IS
MOVING NNW AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT GUSTING TO
60 KT. LESLIE PRESENTLY HAS 20 KT OF NW SHEAR DISPLACING MOST OF
THE CONVECTION S OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 59W-65W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 25.6N 42.2W AT
03/2100 UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM WNW OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. T.D. THIRTEEN IS MOVING WNW AT 3 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 40W-43W. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N35W TO 13N37W MOVING W AT 10KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF N SENEGAL AT 16N16W
TO 14N30W TO 12N38W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 12N38W TO
12N50W TO TRINIDAD AT 10N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N88W WITH FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING
AROUND THE HIGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
FLORIDA N OF 30N. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S
FLORIDA S OF 26N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS HOWEVER CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W HELPING
TO PRODUCE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA. EXPECT...
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM T.S.
LESLIE ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 18N BETWEEN 60W-65W.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N. MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
77W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W HELPING TO PRODUCE THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W HELPING TO PRODUCE SHEAR
OVER T.S. LESLIE. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. LESLIE AND T.D. THIRTEEN ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 76W-79W. FURTHER E...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 57W-60W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N72W. ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N53W. DRY SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED ON
METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY N OF 20N E OF 38W. EXPECT...NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE N BAHAMAS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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