[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 03/0300 UTC IS NEAR
23.4N 61.7W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 378 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 178 NM FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS GENERATED
BY LESLIE MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THIS MOMENT. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 250 TO 300 NM
OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN
47W AND 70W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N32W 16N34W 13N34W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 34W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. THIS WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W...
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N30W 11N40W 9N48W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 9N48W 8N54W...AND NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 10N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 26W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 36W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA
ALONG NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE...INTO TEXAS...FROM THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST...27N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N77W...ACROSS
FLORIDA FROM 28N TO 29N...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N91W.

FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N74W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N78W...ACROSS
CUBA ALONG 80W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 72W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 81W...FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM EL SALVADOR TO 20N IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W 8N79N...BEYOND SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 80W
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W
TO A 26N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N42W AND 15N45W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N39W 28N40W...TO A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N41W...TO 22N40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
24N TO 32N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N77W...
ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 28N TO 29N...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N91W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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