[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 022048
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIRK HAS BECOME DISPLACED ABOUT 100
N MI TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER DUE TO OVER 30
KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME COLD CORE...OR NO LONGER
TROPICAL IN NATURE...ACCORDING TO THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY
CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...KIRK IS NOW CONSIDERED A POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 41 KT. A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR ON
MONDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 49.7N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  03/0600Z 55.0N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  03/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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