[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KIRK IS CENTERED NEAR 46.2N 36.5W AT 02/1500 UTC.
THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM E OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM NW OF THE AZORES. KIRK
IS MOVING NE AT 32 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 44N-47N BETWEEN
35W-39W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 61.1W AT 02/1500
UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. LESLIE IS MOVING NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 56W-63W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANALYZED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCTIVE DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE AND LIMITED OBSERVATIONS NEAR THIS
SYSTEM INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE LOW BECAME EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOONAL GYRE DESCRIBED BELOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL
WAVE AXIS SHARED THE SAME SCENARIO...AS SEVERAL SCATTEROMETER
PASSES INDICATED NO SURFACE TURNING...OTHER THAN THE TURNING
ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
ANALYZED FROM 19N26W TO 13N30W BASED ON CONTINUITY AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W ALONG 16N24W 10N34W TO 6N45W...WHERE THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUYANA AROUND
7N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 40W-50W..AND FROM 12N-17N E OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NE FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING DRYER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE GULF BASIN...AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NRN MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
GULF NEAR 29N87W...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE SE AND
N-CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE GULF. OTHERWISE...MARINE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE GULF SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES S OF 14N W OF 75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS REGION...IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY WITH THE ERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS
SRN PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE FLOW OVER FAR ENE
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE CYCLONIC WIND
FIELD ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GRENADA. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION OVER NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH
CONTINUING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVES IS CENTERED A FEW MILES E OF THE NW
BAHAMAS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N69W TO
28N74W. DESPITE THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE...THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS MORE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIVEN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 73W AND THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MAINLY THE NW BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO TRACK NW STEERED BY A
WEAKNESS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOCATED AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
28N53W... GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 48W-55W. TO THE EAST OF THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
27N38W...SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE 1017 MB LOW REFLECTION AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N39W TO 24N38W.
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED WITHIN 50 NM AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA..COMBINED WITH DRY SAHARAN
DUST ALOFT NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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