[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 021450
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM
RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 46.2N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 51.1N  30.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



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