[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KIRK IS CENTERED NEAR 43.5N 39.2W AT 02/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 615 NM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 645 NM
NW OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 28 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 43N-45N
BETWEEN 38W-40W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N 59.5W AT 02/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 250 NM NNE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 56W-62W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N31W TO 20N27W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N31W. LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ELONGATED NE TO SW IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 23W-39W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST WHICH COVERS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC S OF 30N E OF 35W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
18N23W TO 13N31W TO 07N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N42W TO 05N48W TO 06N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 37W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N100W
THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-NE TO 34N81W THAT
REMAINS A LARGE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS
MORNING. PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROVIDING
AN OVERALL STABLE AND SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF THAT
IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS NEAR 29N86W. ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED OCCURRING S OF 21N BETWEEN
93W-95W. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT ARE PRIMARILY FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING
AS DEPICTED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT 02/0316 UTC. THE RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ALONG 27N/28N WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS PERSISTING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS ALOFT
OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES S OF 14N W OF 73W...INCLUDING WESTERN
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
09N76W TO 13N84W. WITH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE LOCATED NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...LIGHT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED IN
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...THAT SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY W OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE GRENADINES. TYPICAL
OF THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOTED
NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-78W WITH
CONFIRMATION BY A 02/0134 UTC ASCAT AND 01/2306 UTC WINDSAT PASS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N65W SOUTHWEST TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N74W.
THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N64W TO 30N69W TO 27N74W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 32N79W PROVIDING MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 70W WITH NE
TO E WINDS. FARTHER EAST...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO
TRACK NW STEERED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 60W-75W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ALONG 45W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N45W. TO
THE WEST OF THIS HIGH...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
SHORTWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR 31N52W.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 45W-53W. TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N38W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN
34W-41W...WITH ADDED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPLIED BY A 1016 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N38W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
THE LOW FROM 24N36W TO 33N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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