[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 011444
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KIRK IS BECOMING
ELONGATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CLODEST
CLOUD TOPS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST
DVORAK CI-NUMBER FROM SAB. INCREASING SHEAR AND RAPIDLY COOLING
SSTS ALONG THE TRACK IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
FURTHER WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 36
HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/22...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION. OTHERWISE...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST REASONING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT AN
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.

THE INITIAL 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1238
UTC ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 37.4N  46.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 40.0N  43.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 44.3N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 49.5N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  03/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net