[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KIRK IS CENTERED NEAR 35.3N 48.2W AT 01/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 720 NM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1030 NM W
OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-37N
BETWEEN 46W-50W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 53.5W AT 01/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 480 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 15
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN
50W-56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
15N-23N BETWEEN 55W-58W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N25W TO 21N21W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N25W. LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 18W-37W WHICH IS
MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MONSOONAL GYRE. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 14N25W TO 06N35W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N35W TO
06N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N93W
AND REMAINS A LARGE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS
MORNING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY FAIR. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 21N W OF 93W. HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED NE OF THE GULF BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS...ONE
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 33N74W...AND THE OTHER
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE PRIMARILY FOUND ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING AS DEPICTED BY EARLIER
ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES AT 01/0338 UTC AND 31/2328 UTC
RESPECTIVELY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN ALONG 28N/29N WITH LIGHT E TO
SE WINDS PERSISTING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS ALOFT
OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES W OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 74W. WITH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY W OF 70W. TYPICAL OF THIS TYPE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-77W WITH CONFIRMATION BY
A 01/0154 UTC ASCAT PASS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N66W SOUTHWEST TO A BASE NEAR 24N77W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
32N62W TO 29N71W AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N66W TO
25N72W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N74W
PROVIDING MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 70W WITH NE TO E WINDS.
FARTHER EAST...HURRICANE KIRK CONTINUES TO TRACK NE...NORTH OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHILE TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO
TRACK W-NW S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ALONG 40W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
33N40W. FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING...
HOWEVER A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N34W
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 26N-33N
BETWEEN 30W-41W...WITH ADDED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPLIED BY A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N-35N ALONG 32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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