[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KIRK IS CENTERED NEAR 33.9N 49.5W AT 01/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 785 NM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1115 NM W
OF THE AZORES MOVING N-NE AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-35N
BETWEEN 48W-51W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 52.8W AT 01/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 515 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 18
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
50W-56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 53W-56W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N23W TO 20N19W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N23W. LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 17W-37W WHICH IS
MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MONSOONAL GYRE. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 14N23W TO 08N33W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N33W TO
07N39W TO 07N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N92W
AND REMAINS A LARGE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS
EVENING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY FAIR. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED NE OF THE GULF BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS...ONE
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 33N74W...AND THE OTHER
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 34N84W. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE PRIMARILY FOUND ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING AS DEPICTED BY EARLIER
ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES AT 31/1626 UTC AND 31/2328 UTC
RESPECTIVELY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN ALONG 28N/29N WITH LIGHT E TO
SE WINDS PERSISTING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS ALOFT
OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES W OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH OF CUBA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
78W-82W. MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR.
WITH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY
W OF 70W. TYPICAL OF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN
72W-77W WITH CONFIRMATION BY A 01/0154 UTC ASCAT PASS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N67W SOUTHWEST TO A BASE NEAR 24N77W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N61W
TO 27N72W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N74W PROVIDING MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC W OF 70W WITH NE TO E WINDS. FARTHER EAST...HURRICANE KIRK
CONTINUES TO TRACK N-NE...NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHILE
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO TRACK W-NW S OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-60W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 40W ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N40W. FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING...HOWEVER A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N34W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 30W-40W...WITH HINTS OF A
REFLECTIVE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 28N-34N ALONG 31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net