[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 11N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES NEAR 8N30W TO 7N40W AND
4N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
8N TO 11N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 12N23W TO 10N26W AND 9N28W.
THIS TROUGH BREAKS UP THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 21W AND 23W...FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W...
AND FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. THIS
TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 38W/39W FROM 9N TO 15N.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND IN THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH SURROUNDS THE
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS RELATED TO SANDY. THE TROUGH HAS MOVED
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING BEHIND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT
IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA...
BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N90W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE HIGH CENTER.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE
EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE COMPARATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST
TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 23N70W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA...
BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH HAITI BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IS FILLED
WITH PURELY MIDDLE LEVEL-TO-UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED WITH SOUTHERLY-TO-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 17N63W
BEYOND 10N66W IN NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 15N74W 10N75W...BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND
DATA.SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N73W 13N76W 8.5N77W IN THE GULF OF URABA IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO 21N TO 22N BETWEEN
65W AND 66W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 88W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W JUST TO THE EAST OF
BERMUDA...TO 23N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO WESTERN
JAMAICA. THE IS STATIONARY FROM JAMAICA TO 17N82W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
21N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 66W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N33W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N35W AND 18N34W. THE CYCLONIC
CENTER AND TROUGH SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N15W TO 27N20W 22N30W AND 20N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 25W AND 37W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
EAST OF 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
MOVING AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OR SO...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 67W.
ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 47W TO THE BAHAMAS WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 12 FEET IN
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.

A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST
OF 47W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 11 TO 16 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS. ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 47W
20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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