[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL JUST TO THE
NORTH OF GAMBIA...TO 13N20W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ STARTS AT
10N41W AND IT CONTINUES TO 8N50W AND NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 6N58W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 14W AND 23W AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 26W
AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W AND
FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 56W.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 10N TO 14N.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 10N58W 13N59W.
16N43W 12N46W 7N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 10N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...SURROUNDING
THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS RELATED TO SANDY. THE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N77W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA...
BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE HIGH CENTER.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE
EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE COMPARATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST
TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 25N70W...TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 83W AND 86W
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA...
BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 20N64W TO 15N67W
TO 10N69W AND THE BAND OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 13N63W
18N61W 13N62W AND 7N64W IN SOUTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 6N75W TO
10N74W AND 14N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N70W...TO 14N71W AND 11N71W IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA AND FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 69W AND 71W IN THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST
NEAR 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N81W...
BEYOND 8N60W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BEYOND 8N82W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W JUST TO THE WEST OF
BERMUDA...TO 25N70W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE FRONT IS
STATIONARY FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO WESTERN JAMAICA...
TO 17N81W.  THIS TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE U.S.A. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO CUBA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 22N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N33W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N35W AND 18N34W. THE CYCLONIC
CENTER AND TROUGH SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N15W TO 27N20W 22N30W AND 20N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN
17W AND 21W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
20W AND 40W AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 36W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 21N15W...TO A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N21W...TO 13N33W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS MOVING AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
24N60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OR SO...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W.
A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 24N35W 31N45W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 12 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE
LINE 15N61W TO 20N35W...20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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