[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W...TO 9N20W 7N30W AND 9N43W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 31W...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N43W 12N46W 7N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST...SURROUNDING THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS RELATED TO SANDY.
THE TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N84W. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N81W 23N90W 23N98W.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 20N100W
IN MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS NEAR THE
BASE OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH...PASSING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W TO 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...INTO
WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST OF 87W...AND 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 26N. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 9 FEET.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS GUATEMALA BELIZE AND HONDURAS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BEYOND CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NICARAGUA INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS JAMAICA AND HAITI AND BEYOND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PASSING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CUBA AND BEYOND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HAITI TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE
HAITI-TO-SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA LINE OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N70W...TO 14N71W AND 11N71W IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA AND FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 69W AND 71W IN THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST
NEAR 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA TO 6N78W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BEYOND 8N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN COASTAL
COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
78W AND 86W SURROUNDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N70W 25N73W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 19N79W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
JAMAICA. THIS TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE U.S.A. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO CUBA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 22N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 36N35W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE CENTER ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 20W AND 55W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N27W AND 24N36W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 21W AND
25W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 16W AND 19W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN
15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N33W 17N39W...FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN
28W AND 32W...FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W...AND FROM
18N TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N13W...TO A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N21W...TO 13N37W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO MOVES AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
19N60W...FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 68W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
9 TO 15 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 68W. EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 15N
TO THE WEST OF 46W. A SECOND SITUATION OCCURS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LINE 31N46W 22N35W...20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FEET.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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