[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC. METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY IS UNAVAILABLE AFTER
29/2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY AT 30/0300 UTC IS NEAR
39.8N 75.4W. SANDY IS MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH SANDY IS INLAND.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH RESPECT
TO THE 1008 MB AS THE OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND INLAND IN THE U.S.A...FROM 24N TO 47N
BETWEEN 58W AND 83W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W...TO 8N27W AND 11N42W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
3N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN
38W AND 39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N43W 10N46W 7N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION...COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST...SURROUNDING THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS RELATED TO SANDY.
THE TROUGH RUNS FROM DELAWARE TO CENTRAL GEORGIA...INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N84W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N81W 23N90W 23N98W.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 20N100W
IN MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS NEAR THE
BASE OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH...PASSING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN
TEXAS NEAR 32N95W TO 26N94W...TO 19N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO 15N84W IN EASTERN HONDURAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS GUATEMALA BELIZE AND
HONDURAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BEYOND CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NICARAGUA
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS JAMAICA AND HAITI AND BEYOND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PASSING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HAITI TO
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE
HAITI-TO-SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA LINE OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N68W 15N70W...TO 11N71W IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 6N78W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BEYOND THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER THAT
IS ALONG 83W FROM 8N TO 9N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IN COASTAL COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN
77W AND 84W SURROUNDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N72W 25N73W...TO 19N78W AT THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. THIS TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE U.S.A. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO CUBA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE
WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 37N35W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE CENTER ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 20W AND 55W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 31N25W 27N30W AND 25N36W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
31N18W TO 26N27W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N29W 22N35W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
18N TO 22N BETWEEN 32W AND 45W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N12W...TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N21W...TO 16N26W...TO 17N46W AND 24N62W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
10 TO 18 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 65W. EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 50W AND THE BAHAMAS. READ ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FEET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LINE FROM 31N46W TO 22N35W...ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 18N50W
21N35W 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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