[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY 30/0000 UTC IS NEAR
39.4N 74.5W. SANDY IS ABOUT 4 NM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW
JERSEY. SANDY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 24 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W
OF THE CENTER...AND INLAND FROM 38N-46N BETWEEN 74W-79W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 7N24W TO 10N38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 21W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS NEAR 32N95W. 15-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-98W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...A 1020 MB HIGH TO BE OVER THE NW GULF. ALSO EXPECT
RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N...AND
FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTENDS FROM E
CUBA AT 21N76W TO 18N80W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N86W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF THE MONA PASSAGE AT 17N68W TO
14N70W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AT 11N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 68W-71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN ...
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 73W-85W. SURFACE
WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AT 10--15 KT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN... WHILE 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE TRADEWINDS ARE THUS COMPLETELY DISRUPTED.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
70W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-78W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. EXPECT...THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER PANAMA
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC...WELL SOUTH OF SANDY...
FROM 31N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 24N75W TO E CUBA AT
21N76W. A 1013 MB HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS...E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...NEAR 16N52W MOVING NW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E
FROM 12N43W TO 7N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 43W-49W. THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N32W TO 25N37W. A 997
MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 33N28W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THIS LOW TO 28N30W. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN
17W-30W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A
1016 MB HIGH IS N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 21N21W MOVING
S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 36N35W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS LOW IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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