[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281206
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 28/1200 UTC IS NEAR 32.1N
73.1W. SANDY IS ABOUT 225 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 345 NM TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY.
SANDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 29N TO 36N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 38N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 81W IN
FLORIDA...IN A CLOSED 1004 MB ISOBAR. A WARM FRONT IS ALONG
33N74W TO 31N63W TO 26N47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND
50W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COLLIDES WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
35W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 19N BETWEEN 36W AND 48W.
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
WESTERN GUINEA NEAR 12N16W TO 8N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N23W TO 7N30W 6N38W AND 6N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 11W AND 18W AND FROM
4N TO 8N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W...ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE SANDY...IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SPANS THE AREA.

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE SANDY AT THE MOMENT
SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA
NEAR 30N84W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N87W TO 23N93W...
INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N96W AND 19N98W IN
MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN MEXICO FROM 19N98W
TO 25N101W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS
TO 19N96W IN COASTAL MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE CURRENT
COLD FRONT...WITH AREAS OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W...AND AREAS OF
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N
TO THE EAST OF 90W. A THIRD POINT OF CONCERN IS 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF 85W. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN
THEY ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE
SANDY PASSES THROUGH 27N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N79W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 17N79W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
20N70W TO 10N80W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...20N70W 10N79W.

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W FROM LAKE
MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA.
THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH...THAT MOSTLY IS IN VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 37N47W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 34N40W 34N28W. BROAD MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT CURVES THROUGH
31N31W TO 26N40W 26N47W. A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH 26N47W
32N66W TO 26N47W. THE WARM FRONT ULTIMATELY EXTENDS AWAY
FROM THE AREA OF HURRICANE SANDY...AND IT REACHES 26N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N21W
TO 31N16W.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N25W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 27N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 37W. A 1012 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
19N55W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 11N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT HURRICANE SANDY. A COLD FRONT THAT WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 54W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AROUND THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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