[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 28/0600 UTC IS NEAR
31.5N 73.7W. SANDY IS ABOUT 330 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 240 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA. SANDY IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 960 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
30N TO 34N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W...SCATTERED STRONG ABOUT 800 NM
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF SANDY FROM 23N TO 25N
BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OF LOW
PRESSURE COVERS THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 37N IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BETWEEN 62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 82W IN FLORIDA...
IN A CLOSED 1008 MB ISOBAR. A WARM FRONT IS ALONG 33N74W
TO 32N68W TO 29N57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND
50W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COLLIDES WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
35W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W.
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL AND WESTERN GUINEA TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N22W TO 8N32W AND 9N39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W
AND 17W AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN
20W AND 34W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE SANDY...IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SPANS THE AREA.

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE SANDY AT THE MOMENT
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N87W TO 23N93W...INTO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N96W AND 20N98W IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES IN MEXICO FROM 20N98W TO 25N101W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS
TO 20N97W IN COASTAL MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS THE GALE WARNING...
FROM 22N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 95W...SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 FEET FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
IN AREAS AROUND THE CURRENT COLD FRONT. A THIRD POINT OF
CONCERN IS 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 30N85W 26N85W 23N83W...12 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN THEY ARE FORECAST
TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE
SANDY PASSES THROUGH 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N80W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 18N80W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 11N81W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
20N70W TO 10N80W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...20N70W 10N80W.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
17N TO 19N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE EAST
OF 76W INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 38N48W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 34N36W 32N28W. BROAD MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT CURVES THROUGH 32N34W
29N35W 26N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N40W
TO 29N57W. THE EASTERNMOST POINT OF THE WARM FRONT THAT
ORIGINATES TO THE NORTH OF HURRICANE SANDY IS 29N57W.
SCATTERED STRONG ABOUT 800 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OF SANDY FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W...
AND FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR\
32N21W TO 31N18W.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N27W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
14N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT HURRICANE SANDY. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST RELATES TO
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO
32N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AROUND THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net