[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270014 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.5N 77.2W AT 27/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND...OR ABOUT 400
MI...645 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER
FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WELL E OF THE
CENTER FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 65W-72W. ONE OF THE OUTER BANDS ALSO
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY INTO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION LINGERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE FROM 22N65W TO 14N76W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. HISPANIOLA IS EXPERIENCING SUSTAINED RAINFALL OVER SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N43W TO 10N43W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM
EARLIER TODAY ALSO INDICATES THAT CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS
AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N50W TO 11N49W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAME BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE THAT THE WAVE TO THE EAST IS WITHIN. A 1536 UTC OSCAT
PASS CONFIRMED A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE NORTHERN COAST
OF GUINEA AT 11N15W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W 12N41W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES FROM 7N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 8N59W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 23W-29W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA AT 29N92W
TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA E OF 83W...AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...DUE TO THE WESTERN EXTENT OF HURRICANE SANDY. 20-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF
AND S TEXAS...AND OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO
WITH SHOWERS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL TERMINATE
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EVEN THOUGH HURRICANE SANDY IS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS STILL BEING
DOMINATED BY HURRICANE SANDY WITH BROAD 20-30 KT CYCLONIC FLOW.
AN OUTER RAINBAND IS ALSO IMPACTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO INCREASE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...


HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. S OF
31N...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE...AS WELL AS
OVER THE GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE... A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N45W TO
30N50W TO 30N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 33W-53W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT
24N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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