[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 25.8N 76.5W AT 26/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 48 NM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 126 NM E-SE OF
FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MOVING N-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 75W-77W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
25N-29N BETWEEN 73W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 20N40W TO 9N39W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 14.5N42.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 13N-16N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N46W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
10N47W TO 8N47W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 14N-15N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N26W TO 6N35W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES NEAR 8N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 32W-39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 8N E OF THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-31W...AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR FLORIDA TONIGHT IS HURRICANE SANDY
BRINGING WIND AND RAIN TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...PLEASE SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W
GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MOBILE ALABAMA INTO THE E GULF ALONG
26N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF WITH MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE E GULF COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE SANDY. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF
28N E OF 85W ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE
SANDY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. HURRICANE SANDY HAS A LARGE FIELD OF STRONG NE
WINDS ACROSS GULF E OF 90W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN. A
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF CLEARING THE BASIN ON SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT ARE THE RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE SANDY...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W
COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. THE DRY AIR THAT HAS COVERED
THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS BEING DRAWN
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THEN N TOWARD HURRICANE SANDY. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN BETWEEN 18N-20N AND OVER CUBA INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA W OF 79W. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 15N-21N W OF 79W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 14N TO OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 65W-75W AND FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 72W-84W. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER
HISPANIOLA. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 65W AND DIMINISH EARLY SAT AS HURRICANE
SANDY MOVES FURTHER N. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL
LATE MON AND STALL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS HURRICANE SANDY MOVING THROUGH
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
FROM PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 26N62W THEN NW TO OVER
NORTH CAROLINA GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 32N
W OF 65W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 59W-65W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 30W-45W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS
IN THE TROPICS CENTERED NEAR 6N50W COVERING THE AREA S OF 14N
BETWEEN 45W-55W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N25W. HURRICANE SANDY
WILL TRACK N-NW THROUGH TODAY BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE N-NE
CONTINUING THROUGH SUN OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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