[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 252358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 26/0000 UTC IS NEAR 24.8N
75.8W. SANDY IS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE
BAHAMAS...OR ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
SANDY IS MOVING NNW AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 965 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 105 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC...AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. PRESENTLY...NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
74W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 68W-78W. A FEEDER BAND EXTENDS S
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY AT 25/2100 UTC IS NEAR
31.2N 34.0W MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 19 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WELL NE OF THE CENTER FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN
29W-33W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N40W TO 13N39W TO 10N38W MOVING W
AT 15 KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AROUND THE WAVE...WITH A TILT TOWARDS THE NW. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 37W-41W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N45W TO AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW AT
11N47W TO 7N46W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH AT LEAST ONE EMBEDDED
LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 44W-47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
9N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
9N16W TO 7N24W TO 9N30W TO 8N36W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AXIS RESUMES AGAIN W OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AT 8N49W TO
8N55W TO 9N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 20W-30W...AND FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR 33N87W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-28N E OF 83W... DUE TO THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF SANDY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 85W. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
PRESENTLY NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ONLY 10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE W
GULF W OF 85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
W GULF W OF 85W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY TO ADVECT OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW GULF
IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FEEDER BAND ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 10N BETWEEN 65W-80W TO INCLUDE PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF
80W S OF 15N. ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 15N E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 27N38W
TO 21N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 25N27W. EXPECT
SANDY TO BE JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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