[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 25/1800 UTC IS NEAR
23.5N 75.4W. SANDY IS ABOUT 22 NM/40 KM TO THE EAST OF
GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT 110 NM/200 KM
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS. SANDY IS MOVING
NORTHWARD 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 963 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC...AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 22N TO 24N
BETWEEN 75W AND 77W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 67W
IN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 71W IN THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N81W 15N77W...ACROSS HAITI TO
20N72W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 70W
AND 74W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 80W AND IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF CUBA TO THE EAST OF 84W.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 27N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN
69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 87W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN A CLOSED 1008 MB ISOBAR.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TONY AT 25/1500 UTC IS NEAR
31.0N 36.3W. TONY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 32N TO 34N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N38W 15N38W 11N37W.
IT HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N32W 10N35N 15N37W
20N38W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE AREA...BEING
TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND BEING
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W FROM 6N TO 16N.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL ALONG
20N45W 13N48W 7N50W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 9N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N16W TO 8N20W 7N30W 6N39W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN
42W AND 49W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N
BETWEEN 11W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS AT THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 22N82W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS THROUGH MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...TO 26N94W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 20N98W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
EAST OF 85W. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE AREA IN
48 HOURS ALONG 30N86W 25N95W 21N97W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND
SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO HURRICANE SANDY...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOT AND SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 70W AND
78W WINDS 20 TO 33 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 12 FEET...
AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND
SEAS 8 FT IN NE SWELL. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 68W AND 80W WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM
8 TO 11 FEET.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM TONY IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NEARLY
COMPLETE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO NEARLY 40 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND MUCH COLDER WATERS
SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. A SURFACE TROUGH/LINE OF SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND
FLOW IS ALONG 27N38W 22N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N47W...TO BERMUDA...TO THE CENTRAL
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.

ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 45W THROUGH 32N TO 22N.
A SECOND TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY SEPARATE FROM THE FIRST ONE...
IS ALONG 20N45W 13N48W 7N50W. THIS TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA OF THE 44W/45W TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W
AND 47W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N48W TO 8N47W
TO 6N54W 9N58W 10N53W TO 16N48W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N27W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE HIGH CENTER FROM
19N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT HURRICANE SANDY AND TROPICAL STORM TONY. A SECOND AREA
OF INTEREST IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...WITH
20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET IN
NORTHERLY SWELL...LASTING FOR 12 HOURS OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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