[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 21.6N 75.5W AT 25/1200 UTC OR
113 NM S OF THE GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ABOUT
65 NM NE OF HOLGUIN CUBA MOVING N AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 72W-77W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 14N75W OVER HISPANIOLA TO
NEAR 20N71W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ALSO IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
75W-83W. HURRICANE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND E CUBA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS INTO SE AND E CENTRAL FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM TONY IS CENTERED NEAR 30.4N 38.4W AT 25/0900 OR
ABOUT 725 NM SW OF THE AZORES MOVING E-NE AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 35W-40W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
24N42W TO 30N36W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N39W TO 10N37W MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-20N
BETWEEN 34W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N44W TO 8N45W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 42W-46W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 11N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 10N27W TO 12N34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN
26W-34W AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 48W-54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 14W-20W AND FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 55W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY BRINGING
RAIN TO S FLORIDA...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS COVERED THE GULF OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IS GIVING WAY TO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM N
GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG 26N87W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR REMAINS OVER THE MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MOISTURE MOVING OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 28N E OF 83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE SANDY. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CALM THIS MORNING. HURRICANE SANDY WILL
LIFT N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TODAY BRINGING STRONG NE-E WINDS
ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA TODAY. RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
FLORIDA THROUGH SAT WITH THE WINDS EXPANDING INTO E HALF OF GULF
THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY MOVING
AWAY FROM CUBA TOWARD THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W TO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE SANDY. HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF THE N COAST CUBA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
FRI THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY MOVING AWAY
FROM CUBA TOWARD THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO
BERMUDA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO
RICO TO CUBA W OF 65W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 300
NM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N53W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N47W S-SE TO 24N43W THEN S-SW ALONG 15N48W INTO THE TROPICS TO
2N50W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N42W TO
22N49W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N28W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 11N23W TO 23N33W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N28W. HURRICANE
SANDY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM EARLY
SUN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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