[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 250006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 25/0000 UTC IS NEAR
18.7N 76.4W. SANDY IS ABOUT 52 NM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA...
AND ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. SANDY IS MOVING
NORTHWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ARE 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
90 KNOTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC..AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...SEVERAL CUBAN
PROVINCES...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E JAMAICA FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 67W-79W. SANDY HAS
TRAVERSED OVER EASTERN JAMAICA. NEXT ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ON FRIDAY.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TONY AT 24/2100 UTC IS NEAR 29.6N
42.5W. TONY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST 22 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 39W-44W. TONY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N36W TO 9N32W W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AROUND THE WAVE...WITH A TILT TOWARDS THE NW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N41W TO 7N44W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AROUND THE WAVE...WITH A TILT TOWARDS THE NE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
9N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
9N16W TO 9N30W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-14N
BETWEEN 20W-25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS RESUMES
AGAIN W OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AT 9N46W TO 9N50W TO 11N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN
21W-30W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N83W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-27N E OF 83W... DUE TO THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF SANDY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. 20 KT NE
WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE E GULF...WHILE 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS
ARE OVER THE E GULF W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY TO ADVECT OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SANDY HAS TRAVERSED EASTERN JAMAICA AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
SEE ABOVE. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND
HISPANIOLA MAY RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE WILL
ALSO REMAIN A KEY IMPACT FOR THE ISLANDS. BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. ON THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT SANDY TO REINTENSIFY AND
MOVE NORTH TOWARDS E CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
NEAR 34N73W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS DUE TO SANDY.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 30N W OF 65W DUE TO SANDY.
T.S. TONY IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. TONY IS
MOVING INTO AN AREA OF COOLER WATERS...AND INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD
BE COMPLETE TONIGHT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT
26N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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