[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 24/1800 UTC IS NEAR
17.6N 76.8W. SANDY IS ABOUT 30 NM TO THE SOUTH OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA...AND ABOUT 170 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO
CUBA. SANDY IS MOVING NORTHWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC...
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ON TOP
OF AND TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS OF
16.7N 77.3W...NUMEROUS ALSO IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12.5N
TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 73W...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N80W 13N75W 17N73W TO
20N73W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 67W AND 78W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OF LOW
PRESSURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 69W AND 86W...
IN A CLOSED 1008 MB ISOBAR.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TONY AT 24/1500 UTC IS NEAR
28.5N 45.4W. TONY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN
41W AND 46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 31W AND 36W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W/41W FROM 9N TO 15N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 14N
BETWEEN 41W AND 42W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 9N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N16W TO 8N20W 7N30W 6N39W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN
42W AND 49W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N
BETWEEN 11W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N79W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 24N95W
TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 22N97W. THIS BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
A 21N83W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS THROUGH MEXICO. SOME OF THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST...EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO
ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT MAY BE TO THE WEST OF 80W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO HURRICANE
SANDY THAN TO THE 21N83W CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM TONY IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN. TONY IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
WATERS OF COMPARATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND INTO AN AREA
OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. TONY ALSO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN AS SOON AS 24 HOURS. A SURFACE
TROUGH/LINE OF SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND FLOW IS ALONG 24N45W
21N46W 18N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N54W...TO BERMUDA...
TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N73W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N48W...ABOUT 180 NM TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF T.S. TONY...TO 18N50W AND 8N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN
49W AND 54W.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N28W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE HIGH CENTER FROM
19N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net