[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 76.9W AT 24/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT ABOUT 105 NM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 235 NM
S-SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING N AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60
KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N82W TO 13N76W...FROM
12N-19N BETWEEN 71W-77W...AND FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 68W-71W.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND E CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM TONY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.4N 47.9W AT 24/0900 OR
ABOUT 1230 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES MOVING E-NE AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N49W TO 31N43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N34W TO 9N32W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THE LATEST WINDSAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE LOW IS NO LONGER
EVIDENT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N42W TO 8N41W MOVING W NEAR 5
KT. A SMALL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CO-LOCATED WITH
THIS WAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
12N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS TO THE S NEAR 7N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG
8N29W S  OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE TO 9N39W WHICH IS E
OF THE WESTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN
16W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SW MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO
92W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM THE SE
CONUS ALONG 85W ACROSS W CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF
AGAIN THIS MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE S GULF AT 24/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM
23N94W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES
AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT E THROUGH SUN.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY WILL MOVE N ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA
HAT WILL EXPAND INTO THE E GULF THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM SANDY
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS W CUBA/
YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N84W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
80W-AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
INLAND OVER HONDURAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
STORM SANDY. TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES CUBA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU WHERE IT
WILL LOSE STRENGTH BACK TO TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO THE
W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM TONY IS A CONCERN THIS MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLC...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM SANDY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N
ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO BERMUDA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA BETWEEN 67W-79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE NW ATLC N OF 28N W OF 58W AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
ABOUT 180 NM OFF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 32N W OF 50W THEN NARROWS AS IT
DIPS S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N53W ALONG 20N49W INTO THE
TROPICS TO NEAR 2N45W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. TROPICAL STORM TONY IS TO THE E OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N32W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W ALONG 14N34W TO 23N43W AND
IS BEING AMPLIFIED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THU WHILE
MAINTAINING STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SW ATLC AS TROPICAL
STORM SANDY IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVES N AND INTENSIFIES TO
HURRICANE TODAY. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS E CUBA
TONIGHT/EARLY THU AND EMERGE OFF THE N COAST OF CUBA AS TROPICAL
STORM EARLY THU CROSSING THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE FRI/EARLY SAT
BEFORE MOVING MORE NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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